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Department's MARKAL Model Goes Worldwide
In May, seven representatives from governments and universities of Honduras, Panama, and El Salvador attended the MARKAL Model Training and Development Workshop, one of the Energy Sciences & Technology (EST) Department’s outreach activities. Sponsored by DOE and the U.S. Agency for International Development, the workshop enabled participants to develop their own national MARKAL models to help analyze and plan energy, environmental, and economic strategies in their respective countries. MARKAL, short for MARKet ALlocation, is a computer-driven, dynamic optimization model that uses upwards of 10,000 equations and constraints to foster strategic energy planning. By integrating energy, environmental, and economic factors, the MARKAL model provides energy system solutions to support national planning and policy decisions. Says John Lee, EST’s principal investigator of MARKAL modeling activities, "The MARKAL model identifies costs and benefits of alternative energy scenarios for the future." It also estimates the relative merits of specific technologies that can be applied in an energy system, he explained. According to Lee, "The recent workshop was a first step in a multi-phased program in which BNL will continue to work with Honduras, Panama, and El Salvador to build up their energy-environmental-economic modeling capacity." Later this year, Lee says, the outreach program will be extended to the rest of Central America. Originally sponsored by DOE and the International Energy Agency, the MARKAL model was developed at BNL for energy-system modeling and analysis in the late 1970s. The model now has widespread international acceptance, with more than 40 countries using it to analyze a broad range of issues in energy planning and environmental policy formulation. Now, scientists in the EST Department are conducting environmental analyses using MARKAL and international workshops on its use are regularly offered. Since its inception, BNL researchers have transferred MARKAL from main-frame computers to the PC Windows platform. They also greatly expanded its analytical capabilities. For instance, DOE’s Office of Policy used MARKAL as the primary tool to analyze the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the U.S. energy system. The Office of Energy Efficiency is using the model to evaluate new technologies and energy programs. The Energy Information Administration has recently selected the model for generating the annual International Energy Outlook, beginning in 2002. Also, at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, a comprehensive program is being formed in which MARKAL will be used to study the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the emission of certain pollutants. BNL’s MARKAL modelers are also providing technical analysis for the 2001 climate change action plan to be released later this year by the interagency analytical team. "Later this year, our international outreach program will begin modeling activities with Greater China [Mainland, Taiwan, and Hong Kong], India, and a few other developing countries," said Lee. In yet another project, BNL’s MARKAL team will help develop a world-linked MARKAL modeling system, which will examine issues involving greenhouse gas emission trading — an effort sponsored by the International Energy Agency. Lee also plans on developing an inter-American MARKAL modeling system to assess cooperative energy programs for sustainable development in the Americas — a concept which is being promoted by the administration of President George W. Bush.
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