HET/BNL Lunch Time Talk

"Covid Chaos and Epidemiology"

Presented by Peter Boyle, BNL

Friday, March 17, 2023, 12:30 pm — Small Seminar Room, Bldg. 510

Abstract: I review the SEIR fundamental equations of epidemiology and reproduce the fundamental paper "Seasonality and period doubling bifurcations in an epidemic model", where intrinsic chaotic behavior in epidemiology was discovered. I reproduce via numerical integration known results that measles epidemiology parameters display intrinsic chaos and compare to data. I extend the model to introduce an immunity-waning time constant, and ask the question: Does Covid behave with intrinsic chaos? I discuss the nature of the long term endemic equilibrium.

Hosted by: Robert Szafron

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