General Lab Information

Technologies Available for License

Category: environment

2023-007: Method to forecast hurricane-induced power loss

Invention: 2023-007

Patent Status: Application Number US 2023/0252373 A1 was published on August 10, 2023

For technical and licensing related questions, email tcp@bnl.gov.

Summary

Forecasting power outages in advance can significantly improve restoration timelines. Current methods to forecast power infrastructure damage rely primarily on power outage reports (provided by the utility) which are confidential and usually nonexistent for underdeveloped regions. In this joint invention researchers provide a predictive method that uses satellite-based nighttime light (NTL) observations as a proxy for power outage data. The method does not require any data from the utility, making it useful for isolated regions or regions with limited power outage records.

Description

The method forecasts hurricane-induced power loss based on the NTL and exploratory variables. The NTL data is provided to a machine learning module along with exploratory variables. By analyzing changes in light levels before and after a hurricane, along with various environmental factors like wind speed and rainfall, the system can estimate how much power will be lost in future storms. The method is fully based on publicly available data, mainly satellite-based nighttime lights. This approach is particularly valuable for remote areas where power outage records may be scarce, allowing for better preparedness and response during hurricanes.

Benefits

The method provides a power outage forecast model that does not rely on power outage records provided by the utility, making it useful for isolated regions or regions with limited power outage records.

Applications and Industries

These models aim to predict power outages in areas where historical outage data is scarce or unavailable. Primarily, this will help the utility companies and emergency managers to direct restoration plans, allowing for a more efficient repair and recovery process after the extreme weather event.

Journal Publication & Intellectual Property

Contacts